Loan Limits to Remain the Same for 2009, Kind Of…

Conforming loan limit to stay unchanged for the

third year in a row at $417,000.
“Conforming Jumbo” loan limits to drop in King, Pierce, and

Snohomish counties, from $567,500 to $506,000.

For a detailed description of the changes,

call Toby Wonder anytime at his numbers below.

______________________________________

FULL PRESS RELEASE
For Immediate Release
November 2008

CONFORMING LOAN LIMIT FOR U.S.
TO REMAIN $417,000 IN 2009;
DIFFERENT LIMITS IN SOME AREAS

WASHINGTON, DC – The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced the conforming loan limit will remain $417,000 for 2009 for most areas in the U.S. but specified higher limits in certain cities and counties. The conforming loan limit is the maximum size of loans that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can purchase in 2009.

According to provisions of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA), the national loan limit is set based on changes in average home prices over the previous year, but cannot decline from year to year. Loan limits for two-, three-, and four-unit properties in 2009 will remain at 2008 levels as well: $533,850, $645,300, and $801,950 respectively, for homes in the continental U.S.

The national limit was left unchanged at $417,000 based on declines in FHFA’s monthly and quarterly house price indexes over the past year. The monthly purchase-only index declined 5.9 percent over the 12 months ending August 2008, and the quarterly all-transactions index dropped 1.7 percent from second quarter 2007 to second quarter 2008. Virtually every other measure of house prices has also fallen, with many showing even larger declines. FHFA has not yet determined whether it will continue to use a currently existing FHFA price index to gauge price movements in future years. For this year, however, all reliable metrics point to lower prices, and a price decline of any size is sufficient to determine that the national limit will not change.

Following the provisions of HERA, FHFA has set loan limits for “high-cost” areas in 2009. These limits are set equal to 115 percent of local median house prices and cannot exceed 150 percent of the standard limit, which is $625,500 for one-unit homes in the continental U.S. The new limits affect loans purchased by an Enterprise in 2009, unless the loans were made permanently eligible for purchase under the Economic Stimulus Act enacted earlier in 2008 and has generally higher limits.

Under rules set forth in the Stimulus Act, loans originated in 2008 and the second half of 2007 are subject to limits of 125 percent of local price medians up to a maximum of $729,750. As a result of the difference in the formula for determining high-cost area limits, many of the high-cost area loan limits are different for 2009 than they were for 2008. They are generally lower because of the lower median price multiplier in HERA (i.e., loan limits are 115 percent rather than 125 percent of median prices) and the lower ceiling ($625,500 rather than $729,570). For loans originated during the period covered by the Stimulus Act, the higher of those limits and the 2009 limits will apply.

In calculating loan limits, FHFA used median house price estimates calculated by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Those values have been estimated in a manner consistent with requirements of the National Housing Act, which requires that median prices for all counties in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) be set equal to the median price for the highest-cost county. FHA has estimated median house prices for the purpose of setting its own loan limits and has used data from a number of sources, including aggregated county recorder data (supplied by Radar Logic), the American Community Survey, and the National Association of Realtors.

HUD will allow a 30-day appeals period for those wishing to contest its median price estimates. Appeals are to be based upon data suggesting a potentially higher price median for a given area. Details concerning the appeals process will be released today in an FHA mortgagee letter. To the extent that appeals are deemed valid and HUD’s median price estimates change in response to the one-time appeals process, the FHFA loan limits will be changed to reflect the updated data.

While FHFA has used median house prices estimated by FHA for 2009 loan limits, it may choose alternative methods in future years. FHFA will be seeking public comment on a forthcoming proposal concerning the best approach to measuring price medians for this application.

As in previous years, the 2009 maximum conforming limits are higher in Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands than in the contiguous U.S. In those areas, as delineated in the attached list, loan limits vary from $625,500 to $721,050 for one-unit properties.

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008

It’s hard to believe that anything that takes nearly 800 pages to describe could be time sensitive, however, President Bush recently signed H.R. 3221, the “Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008” and for many, it may provide the incentive needed to act now. A few of the major provisions in the legislation that impact homeowners and homebuyers are listed here:

Tax Credits
First-time homebuyers who purchase their primary residence between April 9, 2008 and July 1, 2009, are eligible for up to $7,500 in tax credit, provided they haven't owned a home in the last three years and fit certain income parameters. The credit is generous, but it is actually an interest free loan, paid back over 15 years at $500 per year when taxes are filed.

Larger Loans at Lower Rates
There have recently been provisions in place that have allowed loans larger than $417,000 to qualify for better financing rates than normally would be available for "jumbo" loan amounts of that size, thanks to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Although these provisions were set to expire, they are being extended. However, the top end of the loan size that will be allowed under these programs will be dropping down from $729,750 to $625,500, effective January 1, 2009.

FHA Hope for Homeowners
This provision is designed to help homeowners who are "upside down" on their mortgages—that is, they owe more on their house than they can sell it for in today's market. Essentially, this plan allows homeowners who meet the requirements and are upside down to refinance their mortgage to a new 30-year Fixed FHA mortgage. There are a number of qualifying details that must be met and requirements to be agreed to, but if you're upside down on your mortgage and struggling in today's economy, this is an option worth exploring in more detail.

These are just a few of the provisions that may benefit you, and there are a number of other items that impact the housing and mortgage industry as whole. But the bottom line is this, home prices are extremely reasonable right now, home loan rates are low, and new incentives are in place that may help make the decision to purchase or refinance even more appealing than before. If you're in the market for a new home or need to make some changes with your current mortgage, there's never been a better time to act.



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Real Estate Outlook: Prices Stabilizing

by Kenneth R. Harney

The economy continues to send mixed messages -- some encouraging for real estate, some not -- but this week the positive are edging out the negatives.

Take housing prices for example. The research company with the largest database of ongoing real estate transactions - First American CoreLogic, which tracks property values in thousands of Zip codes and neighborhoods - reports that nominal price drops have "stabilized" in 883 core-based statistical areas, showing no declines in the past two months.

Why's that important? Because flattening out is what we need before we can see a cyclical turnaround -- in other words, where even in the hardest hit local markets in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, prices have hit bottom.

They're not likely to drop much further, and in some parts of California are now at such bargain levels that large investors are prospecting for entire packages of houses -- ten or more in some cases -- to buy in bulk and rent out.

Gary Crabtree, an appraiser in Bakersfield, California, told Realty Times that he knows of one investor who has a standing order for 20 houses that fit specific price and locational characteristics that he wants to purchase.

The National Association of Realtors sees similar bottoming out -- even the first signs of turnaround -- in a number of key markets in the U.S. In its latest quarterly report, home sales were up year-to-year in 26 percent of all states and 35 percent of metropolitan statistical areas.
Biggest price jumps were in Yakima, Washington, where the median was up 8.9 percent, Binghampton, New York, up 8.7 percent, and Amarillo, Texas, up by 7.2 percent.

On the other hand, the Realtors also reported the national median sales price was down by 7.6 percent from the second quarter of 2007, and now stands at $206,500.
In other key economic developments: New housing starts fell by three percent last month - which is only logical given builders' still bulging unsold inventories.

And mortgage rates took a dip this week to an average 6.47 percent for 30 year fixed. Fifteen year rates slipped below 6 percent to 5.99 percent. New loan applications for FHA mortgages to purchase homes rose slightly, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America -- even while applications for conventional home purchase mortgages from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac dropped for the week.

Summary of the “Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008”

A. Summary of the “Federal Housing Finance Regulatory Reform Act of 2008" This legislation strengthens and modernizes the regulation of the housing government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the enterprises) and the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs or Banks) – and expands the housing mission of these GSEs. In addition, it creates a new program at FHA that will help at least 400,000 families save their homes from foreclosure by providing for new FHA loans after lenders take deep discounts. I. Safety and Soundness Regulation of the Housing GSEs The “Federal Housing Finance Regulatory Reform Act of 2008" establishes a new, independent, “world class” regulator for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks, the housing government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). The legislation endows this regulator with broad new authority, equivalent to the authority of other federal financial regulators, to ensure the safe and sound operations of the GSEs, including the power to:
• establish capital standards;
• establish prudential management standards, including internal controls, audits, risk management, and management of the portfolio;
• enforce its orders through cease and desist authority, civil money penalties and the authority to remove officers and directors;
• restrict asset growth and capital distributions for undercapitalized institutions;
• put a regulated entity into receivership; and
• review and approve (subject to notice and comment) new product offerings.

II. Mission Improvement The new legislation also significantly enhances the affordable housing component of the GSEs’ mission, and expands the number of families Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the enterprises) can serve by raising the loan limits in high cost areas (areas with median house prices that are higher than the regular conforming limit) to 150% of the conforming loan limit. Currently, this would be $625,000.

For the enterprises, the legislation tightens targeting requirements of the affordable housing goals, and rewrites those goals to ensure that the enterprises provide liquidity to both ownership and rental housing markets for low and very-low income families. The legislation requires the enterprises to serve a variety of underserved markets, such as rural areas, manufactured housing and the preservation market. The legislation improves reporting requirements for affordable housing activities, including the expansion of the public use data base, and strengthens the new regulator’s ability to enforce compliance with the housing goals. Finally, the legislation creates a new Housing Trust Fund and a Capital Magnet Fund, financed by annual contributions from the enterprises, which will used for the construction of affordable rental housing.
For the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), the legislation requires new affordable housing goals similar to those that apply to the enterprises for FHLB mortgage purchase programs. The legislation also requires the FHLBs to create a public use data base for such programs. Treasury-certified Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) would become eligible to join FHLBs. Finally, community financial institution members of the FHLBs may use FHLB advances for community development purposes. B. Summary of the “HOPE for Homeowners Act of 2008" The “HOPE for Homeowners Act of 2008" creates a new, temporary, voluntary program within FHA to back FHA-insured mortgages to distressed borrowers. The new mortgages offered by FHA-approved lenders will refinance distressed loans at a significant discount for owner-occupants at risk of losing their homes to foreclosure. In exchange, homeowners will share future appreciation with FHA.
The program is built on five principles:
Long-term affordability. The program is built on the idea, expressed by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke, that creating new equity for troubled homeowners is likely to be a more effective way to avoid foreclosures. New loans will be based on a family’s ability to repay the loan, ensuring affordability and sustainable homeownership.
No investor or lender bailout. Investors and/or lenders will have to take significant losses in order to benefit from the proceeds of the loans refinanced with government insurance. However, these losses would be less than the losses associated with foreclosure.
No windfall for borrowers. Borrowers will share their new equity and future appreciation equally with FHA. Borrowers will pay for the FHA insurance.
Voluntary participation. This will be a voluntary program. No lenders, servicers, or investors will be compelled to participate.
Restore confidence, liquidity, and transparency. Credit markets are fearful and frozen in part because banks and other financial institutions do not know what their subprime mortgages and related securities are worth. The uncertainty is forcing lenders to hoard capital and stop the lending necessary for economic growth. This program will help restore confidence and get markets flowing again.
Program Oversight. The new program will be overseen by a Board made up of the Secretary of HUD, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, and the Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The Board will have the authority to develop standards within the framework of the legislation. Eligible Borrowers. Only owner-occupants who are unable to afford their mortgage payments are eligible for the program. No investors or investor properties will qualify. Homeowners must certify, under penalty of law, that they have not intentionally defaulted on their loan to qualify for the program and must have a mortgage debt to income ratio greater than 31 percent as of March 1, 2008 Lenders must document and verify borrowers’ income with the IRS.
New Loan Amount. The size of the new FHA-insured loan will be lesser of the amount the borrower can afford to repay, as determined by the current affordability requirements of FHA; or, 90% of the current value of the home. Loans must be 30-year, fixed rate loans.
Equity & Appreciation Sharing. In order to avoid a windfall to the borrower created by the new 90% loan-to-value FHA-insured mortgage, the borrower must share the newly created equity and future appreciation equally with FHA. This obligation will continue until the borrower sells the home or refinances the FHA-insured mortgage. Moreover, the homeowner’s access to the newly created equity will be phased in over 5 years. Eligible Mortgages. In order to protect against adverse selection, the program prohibits the Secretary from paying an insurance claim whenever the representations and warranties required to be made by lenders are violated, or in cases in which a borrower has an early payment default and misses the first payment. The Act provides the Board the authority to establish other protections against adverse selection, such as requiring “seasoning” for certain higher risk loans before they can be insured under the program. Appraisers of property insured by FHA must be certified by the state where the property is located, or by a nationally recognized professional appraisal organization, and have “demonstrated verifiable education” in FHA appraisal requirements. Existing Subordinate Liens. Before participating in this program, all subordinate liens must be extinguished. This will have to be done through negotiation with the first lien holder. Qualified Safe Harbor. The legislation provides servicers with an incentive to participate in the program by offering a safe harbor against legal liability. Program Size. The program is authorized to insure up to $300 billion in mortgages and is expected to serve approximately 400,000 homeowners. Program Sunset. The program will begin October 1, 2008 and sunset on September 30, 2011. CBO say the program will net nearly $250 million for taxpayers. The program is paid for by using part of the Affordable Housing Trust Fund; the GSE bill provides a further $2 billion cushion for the government by establishing a reserve fund at Treasury over ten years. If the program costs less than projected, the unused funds are returned to the Affordable Housing Trust Fund. If the program more than pays for itself (as was the case during the Roosevelt Administration), any excess savings are dedicated to reducing the national debt.
C. Summary of the “Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008”
The Foreclosure bill passed by the Senate on April 10 contains the following provisions designed to address the problems faced by families and their communities in light of the foreclosure crisis:

· FHA Modernization. To ensure that additional families can access the FHA program, which provides safe, fixed-rate mortgages, significant FHA reform is included to modernize, streamline and expand the reach of the FHA program. Under this bill, the FHA loan limit is increased from 95% to 110% of area median home price with a cap at 150% of GSE limit (currently, $625,000), allowing families in all areas of the country to access homeownership through FHA. Downpayments of 3.5% will be required for any FHA loan and counseling requirements are enhanced to help provide for stable homeownership.
· Assisting Communities Devastated by Foreclosures. Homes that have been foreclosed upon and are sitting unoccupied lead to declines in neighboring house values, increased crime and significant disinvestment. To ensure that communities can mitigate these harmful effects of foreclosures, $3.92 billion is provided to communities hardest hit by foreclosures and delinquencies. These supplemental Community Development Block Grant Funds will be used to purchase foreclosed homes, at a discount, and rehabilitate or redevelop the homes to stabilize neighborhoods and stem the significant losses in house values of neighboring homes.

· Providing Pre-Foreclosure Counseling for Families in Need. To help families avoid foreclosure, this bill provides $150 million in additional funding for housing counseling. These funds will be distributed by the Neighborhood Reinvestment Corporation by the end of 2008 to ensure families can quickly get the help they need. As many as 250,000 additional families connect with their mortgage servicer or lender to explore options that will keep them in their homes as a result of these counseling funds. In addition, $30 million is provided to help provide legal services to distressed borrowers.

· Enhancing Mortgage Disclosure. To ensure that consumers are provided with timely and meaningful disclosures in connection with mortgages, the bill expands the types of home loans subject to early disclosures (within three days of application) under the Truth-In Lending Act (TILA) including re-financings. The bill requires that disclosures be provided no later than 7 days prior to closing so borrowers can shop for another loan if not satisfied with the terms. The bill requires a new disclosure that informs borrowers of the maximum monthly payments possible under their loan, and also increases the range of statutory damages for TILA violations from the current $200 to $2000 to $400 to $4000.

· Preserving the American Dream for Our Nation’s Veterans. To assist returning soldiers avoid foreclosure, this bill lengthens the time a lender must wait before starting foreclosure from three months to nine months after a soldier returns from service and also provides returning soldiers with one year relief from increases in mortgage interest rates. In addition, the Department of Defense is required to establish a counseling program to ensure veterans and active service members can access assistance if facing financial difficulties. Also included is a provision that increases the VA loan guarantee amount, so that veterans have additional homeownership opportunities. The bill contains provisions to do the following:
· Increase benefits paid to veterans with disabilities such as blindness for the purpose of adapting their housing; provide a moving benefit to servicemen and woman who are forced to move out of rental housing because the owner of the housing was foreclosed on; provide that veterans benefits received in a lump sum are treated the same for the purposes of eligibility for housing assistance as monthly benefits; and to allow the Veterans Administration to provide for improvements and structural alterations to homes of veterans with service connected disabilities.

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Bush signs housing bill to provide mortgage relief

By JENNIFER LOVEN - Associated Press Writer

President Bush on Wednesday signed a massive housing bill intended to provide mortgage relief for 400,000 struggling homeowners and stabilize financial markets.

Bush signed the bill without any fanfare or signing ceremony, affixing his signature to the measure he once threatened to veto, in the Oval Office in the early morning hours. He was surrounded by top administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Housing Secretary Steve Preston.

"We look forward to put in place new authorities to improve confidence and stability in markets," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said. He said that the Federal Housing Administration would begin right away to implement new policies "intended to keep more deserving American families in their homes."

The measure, regarded as the most significant housing legislation in decades, lets homeowners who cannot afford their payments refinance into more affordable government-backed loans rather than losing their homes.

It offers a temporary financial lifeline to troubled mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and tightens controls over the two government-sponsored businesses.

The House passed the bill a week ago; the Senate voted Saturday to send it to the president.
Bush didn't like the version emerging from Congress, and initially said he would veto it, particularly over a provision containing $3.9 billion in neighborhood grants. He contended the money would benefit lenders who helped cause the mortgage meltdown, encouraging them to foreclose rather than work with borrowers.

But he withdrew that threat early last week, saying hurting homeowners could not wait - and even blaming the Democratic Congress' delays in action for forcing an imperfect solution.
Meanwhile, many Republicans, particularly those from areas hit hardest by housing woes, were eager to get behind a housing rescue as they looked ahead to tough re-election contests.

Paulson's request for the emergency power to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac helped push through the measure. So did the creation of a regulator with stronger reins on the government-sponsored companies, as Republicans long have sought.

Democrats won cherished priorities in the bargain: the aid for homeowners, a permanent affordable housing fund financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the neighborhood grants.
The bill takes several approaches to curing the ailing housing market.

It aims to spare an estimated 400,000 debt-strapped homeowners, many of whom owe more their houses are worth, from foreclosure by allowing them to get more affordable mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration.

The FHA could insure $300 billion in such mortgages, which would be available to homeowners who showed they could afford a new loan. Banks would first have to agree to take a large loss on the existing loans in exchange for avoiding an often-costly foreclosure.

The plan also is designed to relieve a broader credit crunch that has taken hold because of rising defaults and falling home values. To free up safer and more affordable mortgage credit, the bill permanently would increase to $625,000 the size of home loans that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy and the FHA can insure. They also could buy and back mortgages 15 percent higher than the median home price in certain areas.

It goes far beyond addressing the current crisis, however.

The legislation overhauls the Depression-era FHA. It requires lenders to show how high a borrower's payment could get under the terms of his mortgage. It provides $180 million in pre-foreclosure counseling for struggling homeowners.

The Treasury Department gains unlimited power, until the end of 2009, to lend money to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or buy their stock should they need it. The Federal Reserve takes on a new "consultative" role overseeing the companies.

The measure includes $15 billion in tax cuts, including a significant expansion of the low-income housing tax credit and a credit of up to $7,500 for first-time home buyers for houses purchased between April 9, 2008, and July 1, 2009.

Democratic leaders, recognizing that the measure could be one of the last items to become law during what's left of their abbreviated election-year schedule, tacked on an $800 billion increase, to $10.6 trillion, in the statutory limit on the national debt.

Conservative Republicans were vehemently opposed to the bill, particularly the help for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Critics charge the companies enjoy lavish profits in good times and wield their outsized political clout to resist regulation while depending on the government to bail them out should they falter.

How the New Housing Law Affects You

The landmark measure has something for struggling homeowners, first-time buyers, and even seniors

By Luke Mullins

That wasn't so hard, was it? It only took the worst real estate slump in a generation, an economy grinding to a department-of-motor-vehicles pace, and a crisis of confidence in the heart of the mortgage finance system to get the gigantic housing bill to the finish line. The legislation, which has been signed into law by President Bush, is hugely ambitious, seeking at once to stem the tide of home foreclosures and restore confidence in mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. To critics, it's a bailout. To supporters, it's a rescue. But no matter what you call it, it is the most sweeping housing measure in decades. Here's how it will affect you:

Struggling homeowners: A key provision of the law would allow homeowners who can't make their mortgage payments to refinance into more affordable, fixed-rate loans insured by the federal government. Under the plan, the Federal Housing Administration can guarantee up to $300 billion of such loans, enough to modify an estimated 400,000 mortgages. To participate, lenders would have to write down the original loan balance, taking a financial hit in the process.

"It's a help, but it's modest in comparison to the number of homeowners who are facing default and foreclosure," says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com. Zandi says the nation could face nearly 3 million first-mortgage defaults this year. Of those, as many as 1.5 million mortgage holders could lose their homes. "That 400,000 [of loans that will be modified under the law] is over the life of the program," Zandi says. "So I don't know if that provides much relief in 2008."

First-time home buyers: The housing law would also benefit first-time home buyers through a tax credit worth as much as $7,500. The credit, however, isn't a grant, but essentially an interest-free loan that must be paid back over 15 years. The outstanding balance must be paid back to the government if the property is sold for more than the original purchase price and the tax credit hasn't been fully repaid. James Glassman, a senior economist at JPMorgan Chase, says the tax credit is unlikely to increase demand from first-time home buyers all by itself. But when coupled with other factors—such as falling home prices—"it's just one more thing that helps," Glassman says.

Seniors: Although it has received little fanfare, a provision in the law that increases the limit on certain reverse mortgages stands to benefit senior citizens. A reverse mortgage is a type of loan—collateralized by a house—available to homeowners ages 62 and up. The loan allows homeowners to obtain monthly payments or a lump sum of cash based on the value of the property. The legislation boosts the cap on the Federal Housing Administration reverse mortgage program to as high as $625,000. "That's a benefit because it gives seniors the ability to access more equity out of their homes," says Darryl Hicks, spokesman for the National Reverse Mortgage Lenders Association.

Low-income Americans. The legislation also creates a permanent housing trust fund to benefit low-income housing. "The funds from the trust fund would be allocated to the states, which would use the money to produce and preserve affordable housing focused on the lowest-income households," says Linda Couch of the National Low Income Housing Coalition. "Low-income advocates see that section as a real victory." Couch says the fund could have as much as $600 million by 2011 from its original funding sources, Fannie and Freddie.

Prospective home buyers: The law could affect house hunters in a couple of ways:

Home prices: Although helpful, the legislation is unlikely to reverse the nationwide decline in home prices in the near term. "The impact will be more of stopping or slowing the hemorrhaging in the housing market rather than sparking some type of strong recovery," says Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners. Still, in a real estate market with a glut of unsold homes, every little bit helps.

Seattle - Recession Proof?

America's Recession-Proof Cities

Joshua Zumbrun

Nationally, home prices are falling, unemployment is on the rise and the economy is expected to grow slowly--or even contract--in the first half of the year. But some cities are doing just fine. Take Oklahoma City, Okla. With falling unemployment, one of the country's strongest housing markets, and solid growth in agriculture, energy and manufacturing, it looks best positioned among the nation's largest metropolitan areas to ride out the current crisis.

San Antonio is right behind. It also features solid employment figures and affordable home prices that continue to rise. Its industries are growing; it can't hurt that the new AT&T (nyse: T - news - people ) was formed when San Antonio-based SBC Communications swallowed the old AT&T Corp. and BellSouth.

The others holding steady or improving include Austin, Texas; Houston; Charlotte, N.C.; Dallas; San Jose, Calif.; Raleigh, N.C.; Salt Lake City; and Seattle.
Behind The Numbers To find them, Forbes.com examined the country's 50 largest metros and looked at several key measures.

We examined unemployment data supplied by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for the year ending in February 2008 to see which areas are most adding or subtracting jobs. Next, we looked at the BLS data on job growth in non-farm payrolls, through February 2008, for construction, education and health services, financial activities, information, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, natural resources and mining, professional and business services, trade, transportation and utilities, and the BLS's catch-all category, "other services."
We also took into account median home price data from the National Association of Realtors--from the fourth quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2007--to see which areas posted the largest annual gains. Our data don't account for the impact of declining sales in the first several months of this year.

Finally, our rankings were adjusted using data from a November 2007 report, "U.S. Metro Economies: The Mortgage Crisis," by the U.S. Conference of Mayors. It lists each city's estimated gross metropolitan product growth by projecting how rising foreclosures and falling home prices would affect overall levels of productivity in local economies.
Sunny Southern Skies Texas cities fared best under these measures. San Antonio, Austin, Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth have benefited from historically lower home prices, which have been affordable to a large segment of the population. The availability of land--and, in some cases, little zoning--helped keep prices in these cities low. Instead of competing for homes, Texans could move to a new subdivision a little farther out.

What's more, all four boast falling unemployment rates, with Austin dropping from 3.8% to 3.6% and San Antonio from 4.3% to 4%. Cities that are expected to see growth in non-farm payrolls include Raleigh, which is expected to see 7.4% growth in professional and business services and 6% growth in education and health. In Salt Lake City, where the median home price rose 2.5% and unemployment, at 3.1%, is below the 5.1% national average, growth in education and health services is expected to be 5.5%.

Some cities have seen increasing home prices but otherwise continue to struggle. Buffalo and Rochester, N.Y., have seen home price growth (from a low base) but still contend with high unemployment--around 6%--and slow-growing or shrinking industries.

And in the San Jose area, the median home sale price is over $830,000. That's 11% higher than it was in the fourth quarter of 2006, helping to land the area at No. 4 on our list. Problem is, that growth has since cooled, and it remains to be seen whether pricey homes coupled with a 5.3% unemployment rate will cause trouble for homeowners this year.

To be sure, even in the most resilient cities, the mortgage crisis has caused suffering. People everywhere got into bad mortgages. Similarly, even in the most battered cities, the majority of people are employed and making their mortgage payments. The extent of recession or resilience is very much in the eye of the beholder, and this list represents only one of many ways to take a snapshot of economies that are standing tall.

In his statements to Congress' Joint Economic Committee earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke predicted the economy would possibly move into recession in the first half of 2008 but begin to rebound in the second half.

If you're tired of waiting, these might be the best places to go.

View the entire article at http://www.forbes.com/2008/04/29/cities-recession-places-forbeslife-cx_jz_0429realestate.html

Best Cities for Home Sellers

By Matt Woolsey, Forbes Magazine

Though luxury home buyers took a big bite out of the Big Apple last year--properties in the Plaza Hotel and condos along Central Park West sold for record prices and the city posted new highs in price per square foot and median sales price--2008 hasn't been as kind to sellers.

There is plenty of new construction, especially on the West Side and in the outer boroughs. But vacancies are on the rise. That's bad news, especially when the job market takes a pounding.A loosening market, job losses and new construction projects adding to an already growing inventory lands New York, typically a strong market, No. 21 on our list of best cities for home sellers.

"What happens is that people tend to look at prices as a barometer of the health of the market," says Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, a Manhattan appraisal company. "But it's really how many people are in the market, and what you're seeing now are people dropping out because of affordability or because they can't get credit."

West coast sellers are faring better. In San Jose, Calif., No. 1 on our list, tough regulatory measures make it difficult to overbuild. New home construction dropped 63% last year, while jobs grew by 1.2%. Home vacancies, which were already low at 1.6%, fell to a national bottom at 0.8%, helping make San Jose one of the country's tightest markets.

Farther north, San Francisco's conforming loan limit jumped from $417,000 to the maximum $729,750, which makes getting credit a simpler affair for many of the city's home buyers. In 2006, the market felt a softening that pushed vacancy rates up to 2.4%, but a 56% cut in construction has cut vacancy rates in half. The increased access to credit, thanks to the new Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac limits, and the lack of available properties plays to sellers' interests.

Behind The Numbers To find the other cities on our list, we looked at the country's 40 largest metro areas and assessed how friendly conditions are expected to be for sellers this year. Each city was ranked by its 2007 unsold vacancy rate, calculated by the U.S. Census American Housing Survey, and how much the market had tightened or loosened when compared with 2006 conditions.

Then we looked at construction starts, as tracked by the National Association of Home Builders, to see if building starts would compound or alleviate vacancy woes. Next was job creation, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as a way to measure the local economy's ability to absorb or offset housing losses.

Last, we factored in the degree to which new conforming loan limits from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will improve each market's lending conditions. When Freddie and Fannie get more involved, lenders get the implicit backing of the Federal Government, something that softens the risks that have slowed lending elsewhere, as jumbo, or nonconforming loans, can be expensive losses.

"There is still an unwillingness on the behalf of lenders to bear the higher risks of jumbos given the potential loss severity," says Anthony Sanders, a professor of finance at Arizona State University. "Recent price declines are scaring investors and lenders alike."

San Jose and San Francisco came out on top because they fit the profile of a sellers' market--low inventory rates that were still shrinking, good job creation, a large scale cutback in new home construction and a boost in the credit market from new Fannie and Freddie loan limits.

But one look at the rest of the spots on our list will remind you that the term "seller's market" is relative. Many, like Denver, have experienced consecutive quarterly price declines. Prices here dropped 6.3% last year, according to the National Association of Realtors. Seventh-place Denver also has a 3% unsold vacancy rate. Still a 2% jump in new jobs and a 49% cut in construction are reasons to be optimistic about the next year or two.

Seattle has experienced similar construction rate cuts. The city went through its own bust in 2002 and 2003, as the result of mass overbuilding. Since homes take a few years to finish, when construction rates plummet, as they did in Seattle from 2003-2005, it takes years before those adjustments are felt. By 2006, Seattle had the lowest vacancy rate in the country, and wasn't as prone to the price adjustments felt elsewhere, making it our 10th best sellers market today.

While job growth, new construction and vacancy rates and access to credit are important barometers, the bottom line is this: When there are more buyers chasing property than sellers looking to unload, that means a relatively quicker sale, which in this market is the best that can be expected, even if it's a small or flat price gain.

Seattle home values hottest in U.S.

By AUBREY COHEN
P-I REPORTER

Seattle-area home appreciation has been the hottest in the nation for 11 months in a row, despite steadily slowing for the past year and a half, according to data released Tuesday.

July's price for a typical home in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties was up 6.9 percent from July 2006 and 0.2 percent from June 2007, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, which do not give actual prices.

The August median home price was $439,000 in Seattle and $415,000 in King County, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Both medians figured in condominiums and single-family homes.

While July's annual increase was the smallest for the Seattle area in nearly four years, it was still the largest in July among the 20 metropolitan areas the indices track, just five of which posted an increase.

The story is a bit different for month-to-month appreciation, with nine other areas posting increases and all but one of those exceeding Seattle's percentage change. The 20-city composite index declined 0.4 percent from June and 3.9 percent from July 2006.

"The decline in home prices clearly continued into the summer months," Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC, said in a news release accompanying the report.

Detroit was simultaneously worst among the 20 cities for annual price change, with a 9.7 percent decline from July 2006 to July 2007, and first for monthly change, with a 1.3 percent jump from June to July.

Tampa, Fla., had the second-highest annual decline, at 8.8 percent, while Charlotte, N.C., was second to Seattle for increases, at 6 percent. Miami posted the biggest monthly decline, with prices down 1.7 percent, followed by Tampa and New York, which were both down 1 percent.

The drop in the 20-city index was the largest ever for that measure, which goes back to 2000, while the 4.5 percent decline in S&P's 10-city index was the largest for it since July 1991.

S&P Index Committee Chairman David Blitzer said prices might level off nationally by the end of the year.

"Maybe the first stage is steep declines, and we're just about done with those," he said. "The second stage is not much gain, not much loss. The rest of the economy has to catch up to home prices."

Shiller, an economist at Yale University, told lawmakers in a statement last week that the loss of a boom mentality among consumers posed a "significant risk" of a recession within the next year.

Unlike monthly sales statistics, the Standard & Poor's indices try to track the price of typical houses in a market by applying a formula to repeat sales of homes.

They screen sales for distortions, such as foreclosures or sales between family members, and weigh them for such factors as remodeling, neglect and the time between sales.

The Seattle area saw 33 months of double-digit annual appreciation, peaking at 18.5 percent in November and December 2005.