Jumbo mortgage market is beginning to thaw

By E. Scott Reckard

Los Angeles Times

LOS ANGELES — Phil Kelly had 18 more months to go before the fixed rate on his $2.5 million mortgage became adjustable.

But when Kelly, a former computer executive living in Rancho Santa Fe, Calif., learned he could knock his interest rate down by a full percentage point by refinancing, he went for it.

"It's always tough to pick the exact bottom or top of anything," Kelly said. "But I think this rate is about as low as you're going to get."

Rates on jumbo mortgages — loans of more than $729,750 in Southern California counties with the highest-cost housing (and $567,500 in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties) — shot up during the financial crisis as lenders and loan investors shunned anything tainted with even a whiff of higher risk. Rates on big mortgages were especially high relative to those on smaller loans.

But in a boon for borrowers in California's expensive housing markets, the jumbo-loan market is starting to return to normal.

Two weeks ago, the average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate jumbos dropped to 5.79 percent, a nearly five-year low, according to rate tracker Informa Research Services of Calabasas. It edged up to 5.88 percent this past week, still very attractive by historical standards. The average is down from well above 7 percent in late 2008.

Rates are even lower on so-called hybrid adjustable mortgages, on which the rate is fixed for, say, five years and then adjusts annually. Kelly's new loan is a five-year hybrid adjustable identical to his old one, except that he's paying about 5 percent, down from 6 percent.

Banks are also relaxing slightly some of their requirements for jumbo loans. That's an encouraging sign because the market for jumbos, in contrast with the rest of the mortgage business, isn't being propped up by Uncle Sam.

The lower rates and somewhat easier terms reflect newfound confidence among banks in the housing market.

That's because, by definition, jumbos are too big to be bought by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae or to be insured by the Federal Housing Administration.

Plus, the private market for mortgage-backed bonds dried up when the meltdown hit. So lenders making jumbo loans these days must be willing to take the risk of keeping them in their portfolios.

The maximum amounts for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae "conforming" mortgages, and for FHA mortgages, are set by Congress.

The cutoff for single-family homes was $417,000 from 2006 until February 2008, when lawmakers increased it temporarily in certain high-cost areas, including the Seattle area and parts of Southern California.

The increased upper limits, which have been extended until the end of this year, have created a three-tier system in expensive areas, mortgage professionals say: loans of up to $417,000, which are the easiest to obtain and carry the lowest rates; "conforming jumbos" from $417,000 to $729,750, which are somewhat harder to get and have slightly higher rates; and true jumbos, with the toughest standards and highest rates.

In the boom years of 2005 and 2006, interest rates were typically no more than a quarter of a percentage point higher on jumbo loans than on conforming loans, according to Informa Research.

That widened as the mortgage meltdown intensified and home prices dropped in late 2007. The spread ballooned to nearly 1.7 percentage points in early 2009 after the entire credit system froze.

But this year the rate spread has narrowed to less than a percentage point. It could shrink more if conforming-loan rates rise as expected after the Federal Reserve wraps up a $1 trillion-plus program to support the market for conforming loans next month.

In addition to lower rates, down-payment requirements are being relaxed in some cases.

For example, to write a jumbo loan in coastal areas of Los Angeles and Orange counties, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage looks for a 20 percent down payment or that percentage of equity, down from 25 percent last year, said Brad Blackwell, a national mortgage sales manager at the lender.

Jumbo loans remain much harder to get than before the credit crunch and recession. Borrowers typically must have a credit score of at least 700, compared with boom-era minimums in the 600s, though Laguna Niguel mortgage broker Jeff Lazerson said at least one lender was again making sub-700 jumbos available.

What's more, unless their down payments are very large, borrowers must provide evidence of high income, have sizable bank accounts as a cushion against the unforeseen and occupy the houses themselves.

But there are clear signs that the jumbo market has loosened.

One is an increasing availability of "stated income" loans — those that don't require proof of income — of as much as $2 million to borrowers with at least a 40 percent down payment, said mortgage broker Gary Bluman, owner of Real Estate Resources in Brentwood.

Also, instead of a true jumbo loan, some "piggyback" second loans are available again to help certain borrowers with 25 percent down payments pay for high-priced homes, Lazerson said.

Of course, adjustable, stated-income and piggyback loans were big contributors to the mortgage meltdown.

But such provisions are less risky if a borrower has 25 to 40 percent equity.

Despite the confidence in the market that such terms imply, lenders and mortgage investors are still dealing with piles of bad jumbos made during the boom.

Delinquencies of 60 days or more on prime jumbo loans that were packaged into securities jumped to 9.6 percent in January, up from 3.7 percent a year earlier, Fitch Ratings reported recently.

For now, the jumbo market remains limited to the volume of loans that banks are willing and able to keep on their books. But there is hope for a return to private outside funding.

Although no jumbos have been turned into securities for at least two years, packages of delinquent jumbos have begun to be sold again to "vulture" investors, a sign that the secondary market for the loans may revive, said Michael Fratantoni, a vice president of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

"The ice sheet," he said, "is starting to crack here and there."

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Housing: Best Recovery Bets - SEATTLE

As written in CNNMOney.com

Seattle
Median home price: $371,000
Value lost since 2006: 15.2%
Forecast gain by 2011*: 3.8%

Seattle has become a world-class city with a diverse, vibrant economy. As a home to manufacturers such as Boeing and software providers such as Microsoft, the job market has held up better than average, with a current unemployment rate of 8.8%.

Home prices had a softer landing as well, dropping just 15.2% over the past three years, about half the national average. However, prices do tend to be volatile, according to Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic. The lack of available land for development is one reason for that volatility, as are political restrictions on growth.

After another modest price decline of 2.3% in the next eight months, the market should begin to turn up. Between June 2010 and June 2011, the city should see a gain of 6.2%. Averaged out, that means a 3.8% gain over the next two years*.

And while that may not sound all that robust for those jaded by the annual double-digit returns recorded during the boom, that performance will be one of the best of any large city during that period.

For complete article visit: http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/real_estate/0910/gallery.housing_price_forecast/index.html

Is the mortgage market starting to heal?

By Les Christie, staff writerFebruary 19, 2010: 11:51 AM ET


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The mortgage market may have begun to turn: Fewer borrowers fell behind on their payments during the last three months of 2009.

A seasonally adjusted 9.47% of all mortgage loans were late during the fourth quarter, down from 9.64% at the end of September, according to the National Delinquency Survey, which is produced by the Mortgage Bankers Association and is considered the bible of the industry.

This figure is significant because it shows a reduction -- even if just slight -- in the volume of loans heading toward the foreclosure process. This has not happened since 2006.

"We are likely seeing the beginning of the end of the unprecedented wave of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures that started with the subprime defaults in early 2007, continued with the meltdown of the California and Florida housing markets due to overbuilding and the weak loan underwriting that supported that overbuilding, and culminated with a recession that saw 8.5 million people lose their jobs," said Jay Brinkmann, the MBA's chief economist.

Of course, delinquency rates were still 1.59% higher than they were in the last quarter of 2008.

Foreclosures: Where does your state rank?
Brinkmann's main reason for optimism was a drop in the percentage of borrowers who had missed one mortgage payment. That rate fell quarter-over-quarter to 3.63% from 3.79%.

"The continued and sizable drop in the 30-day delinquency rate is a concrete sign that the end may be in sight," he said. "We normally see a large spike in short-term mortgage delinquencies at the end of the year due to heating bills, Christmas expenditures and other seasonal factors."

Another positive sign is a drop in the percentage of borrowers whose lenders had initiated foreclosures, the first step in the process of taking homes away from borrowers. That may be only temporary, though: Lenders have been holding back and the number of seriously delinquent loans not in foreclosure has ballooned.

As a result, loans 90-days late or more now account for half of all delinquencies calculated by the MBA, a record high and twice the category's share of delinquencies two years ago.

Landlord foreclosed. Do you have to go?
"The build-up in the 90-day bucket of loans that could end up in foreclosure should keep foreclosure rates elevated," said Brinkmann.

But the high number of borrowers in that category is also somewhat of a statistical glitch. Loans are remaining there much longer than they did in past years because of government and lender attempts at mortgage modifications.

Of all the delinquency hot spots, Florida is the worst hit with 26% of all mortgages in some kind of trouble.

The worst performing category of loans was subprime adjustable rate mortgages, with more than 42% being 90 days late or in foreclosure. That is nearly four times the rate of default during early 2007, when the mortgage meltdown was heating up.

The MBA report, according to Mike Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research, is a further sign that the housing market is truly stabilizing.

"We're now seeing the next piece of the puzzle fall into place," he said. "Specifically, early stage delinquencies are stabilizing. This is a key sign that housing market conditions are slowly, grudgingly, getting slightly better."

One key trend is that home price declines, a key influence on delinquency rates and, especially, on foreclosures, halted their free-fall in 2009. The average home price in 20 major markets dropped only about 5% during the 12 months ended Nov. 30, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.

As prices stabilize, fewer mortgage borrowers will plunge underwater, owing more on their mortgage balances than their homes are worth. Homeowners with positive equity in their homes have an asset they can tap during temporary financial strains and are much less likely to fall behind on their mortgages.